DFS VALUE PICKS
I’m still using FanDuel Full roster lineups for only the Sunday Day games so no SNF, MNF, or even the wonderful Tuesday Night Football games will be included. Like normal, it’s 9 roster spots for a total of $60,000 meaning you get a little less than $6,700 per pick. I will be selecting guys below that number to help fill out your roster and who will give you the best return on investment. For QB it will be higher than that because for $6700 and lower it is QB’s who may not even play this weekend. QB is also the one position I say splurge, so don’t be afraid to use a good chunk of change on one of the top available guys. Even if you’re all about saving money, I'll provide you with one. Of course, the player in italics is the most expensive option at the position.
QB - Matt Stafford DET $7300
Lamar Jackson Bal $9000
Stack: Kenny Golladay WR $7200
Every game, Stafford has had at least 17 fantasy points, and with Golladay back for the past 2 games, he saw his best output of the season with 23.34 points against a very good Saints defense. This week, he faces a much weaker team in Jacksonville who is the 26th ranked defense against opposing QB’s. Golladay himself has the easiest matchup for receivers according to Pro football focus. I don’t believe either the Lions or Jaguars are good teams overall, but I believe they both are lacking mostly on the defensive side of the ball. Both quarterbacks have the ability to put up some points and keep their teams in the game leading to hopefully more passing. The Lions backfield is one of the most confused in the NFL and the only consistency they have had in recent memory is the Stafford to Golladay connection. I anticipate great return on investment.
RB - Philip Lindsay DEN $5100
Derrick Henry TEN $9000
Other Option: Myles Gaskin MIA $5700: I already wrote an article on Gaskin this week saying you should start him, so he is another good option to plug in here for cheap.
This is by far the riskiest pick I have; New England is a monster on defense and the Broncos are a train wreck all over the field. So much of a train wreck that Melvin Gordon got arrested for a DUI and has since missed practice due to illness. It is looking doubtful Gordon plays this weekend and that means Lindsay steps in to lead back duties. Lindsay can catch and should see enough volume to be a viable candidate for some lineups. The main hope comes from a garbage time TD late in the game to elevate Lindsay into the 3-4X his value market. This is a high risk play and only for the bravest.
WR - Marquise Brown BAL $6300
Davante Adams GB $9000
Other Option: Chase Claypool PIT $5500; Diontae Johnson is out and Claypool is a big play kind of guy. I do think he will be selected by a lot of people this week because of his 4 TD performance last week but he has high upside for his low price.
Marquise Brown’s 2 best games this year have come against bad defenses; this week he plays another in Philadelphia. Philly does have a solid pass rush, but Baltimore has Lamar Jackson who is very good at avoiding pass rushes. Statistically, this will be the worst defense the Ravens have faced in the pass. Lamar Jackson has shown how good of a player he can be when facing poor teams, and his favorite target outside the redzone is none other than Hollywood Brown. Lamar Jackson against a good NFL team however is another story and the Ravens are notoriously bad when playing from behind. Luckily, this week looks like that won’t be any issue, and the Ravens are set to pile it on the unsuspecting Eagles.
TE - Jonnu Smith TEN $5800
Mark Andrews BAL $7600
Other Option: None, Pick Jonnu. He deserves your respect by now.
Smith is actually the 4th most expensive option this week, but the TE class is decimated this week by scheduling. Most of the big names are either on bye this week or playing in later games. Smith, however, should not be this cheap. He is the most consistent TE available in these time slots and is averaging 15.27 points a game. This man is a top option in the league and should be played every week especially with how Ryan Tannehill has been lighting it up. The only TE to be averaging more points per game is George Kittle. Jonnu Smith is a start all over the place and premiering as one of the elite fantasy TE’s in the game.
Flex - James Robinson JAX $6500
Derrick Henry TEN $9000
Other Option: Travis Fulgham PHI WR $5300; The matchup isn’t great but he could grab some garbage time points to help with his day.
Robinson, last week, didn’t hit 100 scrimmage yards for the first time this season when Houston rode the “finally got rid of O’Brien” hype train to their first win. Detroit, this year, defensively has been nonexistent, and I expect last week to be a mere smudge on Robinson’s year. Robinson sees the lion’s share of rushes and is also solid in the passing game seeing at least 4 targets in all but the first game of the season. He will bounce back and this is a perfect week to snatch him up for below average cost. His matchup helps immensely and I don't see a lot of defense from either team in this one.
DEF - Miami Dolphins $4400
Colts $5000
Other Option: Colts $5000; they are the most expensive but for good reason and going against the Cincinnati Bengals this week and I legitimately am afraid for Joe Burrow’s safety.
The Miami Dolphins shocked the 49ers last week by absolutely dominating both sides of the ball, and this week they're are going against the New York Jets, a team who only exists because 31 NFL teams is just a weird number for scheduling. Like usual with defense in DFS, you should pick them up last and honestly you’re hoping for the surprise of the week or at minimum a defense that isn’t going to lose you points. The Dolphins have averaged just under 3 sacks a game and have gotten an interception in each of the last 3 games. In all of their games so far this season, they have forced at least one turnover and if they can turn one of those into a score then they automatically are having a good game. I like my odds against the Jets to take an interception or fumble recovery for six.
