Keoni's Essential Week 7 Starts and Sits
Bye weeks are rough, let me tell you. This week is no exception as some of the top guys are out this week with the Bills, Rams, Vikings and Eagles all out on their bye weeks. That leaves a lot of space in your lineup potentially, so it’s all the more important to start the right guys and sit those that are not going to give you what you need. Luckily, I’m here to help with that and just before “The Shape” of boogie man bye weeks can fulfill its evil purpose, this article will act as Dr. Sam Loomis and save the day, at least until next week (insert heavy breathing over b-roll of your fantasy league).
Starts of the Week
QB
Matt Ryan: IND Colts vs TEN Titans
He’s back baby, finishing as the QB 3 (PFF) in week 6 and setting a Colts franchise record for most completions in a game with 42, the ice is flowing back through his veins. He had his 3rd game over 350 yards this season and had 3 touchdowns, his most of the season. The Colts go against the Titans again, which saw Ryan have his 2nd best game this season. The Colts offense looks invigorated and the face a defense that is ranked 28th vs the positions, allowing nearly 5.5 more fantasy points per game to QBs compared to the league average.
They have also allowed over 300 yards in the last 4 games and at least 2 passing touchdowns in that same span. I believe in Matty Ice and this Colts offense, especially if the backfield is not as healthy as it needs to be to make an impact.
RB
Raheem Mostert: MIA Dolphins vs PIT Steelers
Raheem Mostert and the Dolphins had a bad outing vs the Vikings last week but with Tua Tagovailoa back in the mix, they can get their offense rolling again. His workload is very favorable as well, getting at least 15 touches in each of the past 3 games. He had over 100 yards and a touchdown in week 5 which would be nice to see. With the Steelers defense being the 21st ranked run defense so far, that might be a possibility. Those odds get sweeter knowing they have also given up a touchdown in 4 out of 6 games and have allowed 80 or more yards in 5 out of 6 with 2 allowing over 100 to running backs. I think the Dolphins return to early season form and mixed with Pittsburgh’s iffy run defense, Mostert is a start of the week.
WR
Alec Pierce: IND Colts vs TEN Titans
I don’t try to stack players much but I have to let my Colts fandom take this one for this week. However, bias aside, Pierce has been playing really well these past few weeks. Since week 4, he’s had at least 6 targets a game and has averaged 70 yards over that span including having a game winning touchdown last week.
He is a viable weapon for Matt Ryan and they face the very bad Titans defense which is ranked 31st against the receiving position. The Titans have allowed nearly 11 more fantasy points per game than the league average to the position this year and they have allowed at least 10 catches to receivers in each game. They have also given up more than 150 yards to receivers in each game this year with 3 of those games being more than 200 yards. This matchup should be a slam dunk for the Colts and Pierce is going to be a big part of that.
TE
Dalton Schultz: DAL Cowboys vs DET Lions
Part of this pick is me manifesting positive vibes towards Schultz, who has not done much the past few weeks. In fact, he has basically been on the side of milk cartons since week 1, so fantasy managers are likely frustrated with him at this point. However, Dak Prescott is coming back, and that will lead to a revival of that connection because it wasn’t there with Cooper Rush. I don’t know why, maybe Schultz was looking at his hot wife a bit too much, but with Dak coming back, Schultz’s fantasy viability does as well.
They start off with a layup vs the Lions this week who are one of the worst overall defenses and one of the worst vs the tight end. They allow nearly 3 more fantasy points to the position than the league average. Versus the Lions, the Dalton Schultz comeback tour is about to happen and I can’t wait!
Sits of the Week
QB
Jared Goff: DET Lions vs DAL Cowboys
While you may not normally be starting Goff, anything is possible with byes in effect. If you are considering playing him, here is my argument why you should still look elsewhere for this week. He has had great weeks this year but those were against bottom defenses in Washington and Seattle. Against a stout defense in the Patriots before the Lion’s bye, it was a completely different story. Goff had non touchdowns, 2 turnovers and had less than 230 passing yards for an abysmal QB 27 finish (PFF).
Despite coming off their bye, the Lion’s face another even stouter defense in the Dallas Cowboys who are coming off a divisional loss that I don’t think they’re too happy about. The Cowboys are 7th against the QB this year and they have allowed only 2 games above 200 passing yards. They also lead the league in sacks with 24. All of this scares me away from playing Goff this week.
RB
David Montgomery: CHI Bears vs NE Patriots
I like David Montgomery but he is going to have a tough time against the Patriots on Monday night. He is on a Bears team that doesn’t know what to do with its weapons and he is somewhat reliant on touchdowns or a 100 yard game to have a viable fantasy performance since he doesn’t get a ton of passing down work.
In facing New England, he goes up against the 3rd best rushing defense and one that has not allowed a rushing touchdown this season. They are the definition of a bend don’t break defense in terms of the run having also only given up 100 yards on the ground once this season. Both these figures are the factors Montgomery needs, and if he is denied them, it is going to be a long Monday night for fantasy managers.
WR
Christian Kirk: JAX Jaguars vs NYG Giants
Kirk has really cooled off since week 3 having only 1 touchdown and has 7 total catches in the last 3 games. Those are awful numbers that make me not confident playing him at all. This Jaguars team isn’t gelling like it was at the start of the season, and that has led to Kirk having an average of just under 32 yards per game after week 3 as well as a 45% catch rate over that span.
They also face a Giants team that is pretty competent on defense ranking 1st vs the receiver and has a lot of momentum/confidence right now. They allow nearly 9 fewer fantasy points to receivers per game compared to the league average and they have allowed 7 or fewer receptions in half of their games this year. Kirk might already be on your bench but if he’s not, put him there even with bye week woes.
TE
Mike Gesicki: MIA Dolphins vs PIT Steelers
Gesicki is coming off his best week of the season having 2 touchdowns and 6 catches for 69 (nice) yards. However, Tua Tagovailoa comes back this week and their connection hasn’t really been there this year. In the 3 full games Tua played, Gesicki had 6 catches for 48 total yards. Those are some awful numbers and with Jaylen Waddle being healthy again, Tua is likely going to go to him and Tyreek Hill for most of the game.
On top of that, they face the Steelers who are brutal against the tight end this year, having allowed only 1 touchdown to the position. Outside of the 1 game vs the Browns, they have held the position to an average of 3,2 catches per game and 35.2 yards per game. Those numbers might be one of the scariest things for opposing tight ends this spooky season, so that’s why Mike Gesicki is the tight end sit of the week.
Bye weeks hurt, but with the proper research and help, we can all make it through. Hopefully these start and sit players help you win your matchups this week and if not, we’ll just have to reboot the franchise next week. Good luck and stay dreamin’!
